Barry Croke
Associate Professor
email barry.croke@anu.edu.au
call +61 2 6125 2919
call +61 2 6125 0666

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About

Barry Croke has a BSc in Theoretical Physics and a PhD in Astrophysics from UNSW. He started working in Environmental Science in 1996, and has been a staff member in the Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management Centre since 1999, and has held a joint appointment with the Mathematical Sciences Institute and the Fenner School of Environment and Society since 2006. He has expertise in modelling a wide range of natural systems, particularly focusing on model development, assessment and uncertainty analysis. He is the ANU lead in the One Basin CRC, and is currently president of the International Commission on Water Resources Systems within the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), National Representative to the IAHS, leader of the Applied and Computational Mathematics stream of the Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, and is a member of the editorial board of Hydrology Research.

Affiliations

  Groups

Research interests

  • Development of models for prediction of streamflow and water quality, as well as integrated resource management.
  • Prediction of flow at ungauged sites, which requires techniques for predicting hydrologic response based on catchment attributes such as topography and land use. This involves development of models suitable for such work, as well as exploring the relationships between model parameters and key catchment attributes.
  • Modelling water quality including estimation of sediment, nutrient and pathogen exports.
  • Methods for improving community resilience to flood events
  • Investigating model response to uncertainty in parameter values and input data through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. This is an important component of model development due to the sparse nature of environmental datasets

Research projects

Current Projects

  • Nature-based solutions for building community flood resilience
  • Water quality and justice issues for selected communities in the northern Murray Darling Basin
  • The Peoples Catchment Project
  • Great Barrier Reef Uncertainty Project

Projects

Teaching information

Course convener of Environmental Mathematics (MATH3133) and Environmental Modelling and Integrated Assessment (MATH6102).

Academic contact for Mathematical Modelling and Quantitative Environmental Modelling majors

Supervised students

Location

Room 4.73, Hanna Neumann Building 145, and Room C115, RN Robertson Building 46

Publications

  • Teng, J, Croke, B, Iwanaga, T et al. 2023, 'Development of a computationally efficient floodplain ecological response model for large-scale, data-sparse riparian environments', Ecological Informatics, vol. 77.
  • Wang, Q, Guillaume, J, Jakeman, J et al. 2023, 'A Decision-Relevant Factor-Fixing Framework: Application to Uncertainty Analysis of a High-Dimensional Water Quality Model', Water Resources Research, vol. 59, no. 8, p. 30.
  • Pittock, J, Corbett, S, Colloff, M et al. 2023, 'A review of the risks to shared water resources in the Murray-Darling Basin', Australasian Journal of Water Resources, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 1-17.
  • Wang, Q, Guillaume, J, Jakeman, J et al. 2022, 'Assessing the predictive impact of factor fixing with an adaptive uncertainty-based approach', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 148, pp. 1-15.
  • Sun, X, Croke, B, Jakeman, A et al. 2022, 'Benchmarking Active Subspace methods of global sensitivity analysis against variance-based Sobol' and Morris methods with established test functions', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 149.
  • Zare, F, Guillaume, J, Elsawah, S et al. 2021, 'A formative and self-reflective approach to monitoring and evaluation of interdisciplinary team research: An integrated water resource modelling application in Australia', Journal of Hydrology, vol. 596.
  • Sun, X, Croke, B, Roberts, S et al. 2021, 'Comparing methods of randomizing Sobol′ sequences for improving uncertainty of metrics in variance-based global sensitivity estimation', Reliability Engineering & System Safety, vol. 210.
  • Iwanaga, T, Sun, X, Wang, Q et al. 2021, 'Property-based Sensitivity Analysis: An approach to identify model implementation and integration errors', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 139.
  • Adhikary, R, Sarower-E-Mahfuj, M, Starrs, D et al. 2021, 'Risk of Human Illness from Recreational Exposure to Microbial Pathogens in Freshwater Bodies: A Systematic Review', Exposure and Health, vol. 14, pp. 325-343.
  • Iwanaga, T, Partington, D, Ticehurst, J et al. 2020, 'A socio-environmental model for exploring sustainable water management futures: Participatory and collaborative modelling in the Lower Campaspe catchment', Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, vol. 28.
  • Fu, B, Horsburgh, J, Jakeman, A et al. 2020, 'Modeling Water Quality in Watersheds: From Here to the Next Generation', Water Resources Research, vol. 56, no. 11.
  • Koo, H, Iwanaga, T, Croke, B et al. 2020, 'Position paper: Sensitivity analysis of spatially distributed environmental models- a pragmatic framework for the exploration of uncertainty sources', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 134, pp. 1-14.
  • Douglas-Smith, D, Iwanaga, T, Croke, B et al 2020, 'Certain trends in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis: An overview of software tools and techniques', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 124, no. 104588, pp. 1-19.
  • Fu, B, Merritt, W, Cuddy, S et al. 2019, 'What do we need from catchment water quality models in Australia?', 23rd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2019), ed. S Elsawah, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc (MSSANZ), Australia.
  • Teng, J, Vaze, J, Kim, S et al 2019, 'Enhancing the Capability of a Simple, Computationally Efficient, Conceptual Flood Inundation Model in Hydrologically Complex Terrain', Water Resources Management, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 831-845.
  • Bloschl, G, Bierkens, M, Chambel, A et al 2019, 'Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective', Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 64, no. 10, pp. 1141-1158.
  • Guillaume, J, Jakeman, J, Marsili-Libelli, S et al 2019, 'Introductory overview of identifiability analysis: A guide to evaluating whether you have the right type of data for your modeling purpose', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 119, pp. 418-432.
  • Fu, B, Merritt, W, Croke, B et al. 2019, 'A review of catchment-scale water quality and erosion models and a synthesis of future prospects', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 114, pp. 75-97.
  • Croke, B, Merritt, W, Cornish, P et al 2018, 'An integrated approach to improving rural livelihoods: Examples from India and Bangladesh', IAHS Scientific Assembly 2017, ed. Croke B. Jewitt G., Copernicus Publications, Online, pp. 45-50pp.
  • Iwanaga, T, Zare, F, Croke, B et al 2018, 'Development of an integrated model for the Campaspe catchment: A tool to help improve understanding of the interaction between society, policy, farming decision, ecology, hydrology and climate', 8th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management, IWRM 2018, ed. Z. Xu, D. Peng, W. Sun, B. Pang, D. Zuo, A. Schumann, and Y. Chen, Copernicus Publications, TBC, pp. 1-12.
  • Teng, J, Jakeman, A, Vaze, J et al 2017, 'Flood inundation modelling: A review of methods, recent advances and uncertainty analysis', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 90, no. -, pp. 201-216pp.
  • Merritt, W, Fu, B, Ticehurst, J et al 2017, 'Realizing modelling outcomes: A synthesis of success factors and their use in a retrospective analysis of 15 Australian water resource projects', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 94, pp. 63-72pp.
  • Fu, B, Weber, T, Cuddy, S et al 2017, 'Conceptual modelling for water quality management', 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2017), ed. Syme, G., Hatton MacDonald, D., Fulton, B. and Piantadosi, J, The Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc., Australia.
  • Croke, B 2017, 'Estimating surface energy fluxes: a key component for estimating potential evaporation', 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2017), ed. Syme, G., Hatton MacDonald, D., Fulton, B. and Piantadosi, J, The Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc., Australia, pp. 1836-1842.
  • Ceola, S, Montanari, A, Krueger, T et al 2016, 'Adaptation of water resources systems to changing society and environment: a statement by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences', Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 61, no. 16, pp. 2803-2817.
  • Shin, M, Guillaume, J, Croke, B et al 2015, 'A review of foundational methods for checking the structural identifiability of models: Results for rainfall-runoff', Journal of Hydrology, vol. 520, pp. 1-16.
  • Croke, B, Cornish, P & Islam, A 2015, 'Modeling the Impact of Watershed Development on Water Resources in India', in V.R. Reddy and G.J. Syme (ed.), Integrated Assessment of Scale Impacts of Watershed Intervention: assessing hydrogeological and bio-physical influences on livelihoods, Elsevier, Amsterdam, Kidlington and Waltham, pp. 99-148.
  • Cornish, P, Karmakar, D, Kumar, A et al 2015, 'Improving crop production for food security and improved livelihoods on the East India Plateau. I. Rainfall-related risks with rice and opportunities for improved cropping systems', Agricultural Systems, vol. 137, pp. 166-179.
  • Kath, J, Powell, S, Reardon-Smith, K et al 2015, 'Groundwater salinization intensifies drought impacts in forests and reduces refuge capacity', Journal of Applied Ecology, vol. 52, no. 5, pp. 1116-1125.
  • Asher, M, Croke, B, Jakeman, A et al 2015, 'A review of surrogate models and their application to groundwater modeling', Water Resources Research, vol. 51, no. 8, pp. 5957-5973.
  • Powell, S, Jakeman, A & Croke, B 2014, 'Can NDVI response indicate the effective flood extent in macrophyte dominated floodplain wetlands?', Ecological Indicators, vol. 45, pp. 486-493.
  • Croke, B, Blakers, R, El Sawah, S et al. 2014, 'Marrying Hydrological Modelling and Integrated Assessment for the needs of Water Resource Management', Bologna IAHS 2014 - 6th IAHS-EGU International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management, IAHS Press, Italy, pp. 351-356.
  • Cleridou, N, Benas, N, Matsoukas, C et al 2014, 'Water resources of Cyprus under changing climatic conditions: Modelling approach, validation and limitations', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 60, pp. 202-218.
  • Ivkovic, K, Croke, B & Letcher, R 2014, 'Overcoming the challenges of using a rainfall-runoff model to estimate the impacts of groundwater extraction on low flows in an ephemeral stream', Hydrology Research: an international journal, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 58-72.
  • Dyer, F, El Sawah, S, Croke, B et al 2013, 'The effects of climate change on ecologically-relevant flow regime and water quality attributes', Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, vol. Online (11 June 2013, DOI 10.1007/s00477-013-0744-8).
  • Mallela, J, Lewis, S & Croke, B 2013, 'Coral Skeletons Provide Historical Evidence of Phosphorus Runoff on the Great Barrier Reef', PLOS ONE (Public Library of Science), vol. 8, no. 9, pp. e75663-e75663.
  • Bennett, N, Croke, B, Guariso, G et al 2013, 'Characterising performance of environmental models', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 40, pp. 1-20.
  • Croke, B & Littlewood, I 2013, 'Effects of data time-step on the accuracy of calibrated rainfall-streamflow model parameters: Practical aspects of uncertainty reduction', Hydrology Research: an international journal, vol. 44, no. 3, pp. 430-440.
  • Rosbjerg, D, Bloschl, G, Burn, D et al 2013, 'Prediction of floods in ungauged basins', in G. Bloschl, M. Sivapalan, T. Wagener, A. Viglione, H. Savenije (ed.), Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 189-226.
  • Rawluk, A, Curtis, A, Sharp, E , Ross, A, et al 2012, 'Managed aquifer recharge in farming landscapes using large floods: an opportunity to improve outcomes for the Murray-Darling Basin?', Australasian Journal of Environmental Management, vol. iFirst, pp. 1-15.
  • Shin, MJ, Guillaume, JHA, Croke, BFW, Jakeman, AJ 2013, 'Addressing ten questions about conceptual rainfall-runoff models with global sensitivity analyses in R', Journal of Hydrology, vol. 503, pp. 135-152.
  • Croke, B, Herron, N, Pavelic, P et al 2012, 'Impacts of meso-scale Watershed Development in Andhra Pradesh (India) and their implications for designing and implementing improved WSD policies and programs', Water Practice and Technology, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 2-9.
  • Sun, X, Newham, L, Croke, B et al 2012, 'Three complementary methods for sensitivity analysis of a water quality model', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 37, pp. 19-29.
  • Croke, B 2012, 'Water harvesting and better cropping systems for the benefit of small farmers in watersheds of the East India Plateau', Water Practice and Technology, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. -.
  • Koskela, J, Croke, B, Koivusalo, H et al 2012, 'Bayesian inference of uncertainties in precipitation-streamflow modeling in a snow affected catchment', Water Resources Research, vol. 48, no. 11, 111. W11513, doi:10.1029/2011WR011773.
  • Dyer, F, El Sawah, S, Harrison, E et al 2011, 'Predicting water quality responses to a changing climate: building an integrated modelling framework', General Assembly Earth on the Edge: Science for a Sustainable Planet (IUGG 2011), IAHS Press, France, pp. 178-183.
  • Sabetraftar, K, Mackey, B & Croke, B 2011, 'Sensitivity of modelled gross primary productivity to topographic effects on surface radiation: A case study in the Cotter River Catchment, Australia', Ecological Modelling, vol. 222, no. 3, pp. 795-803.
  • Littlewood, I, Croke, B & Young, P 2011, 'Discussion of "Effects of temporal resolution on hydrological model parameters and its impact on prediction of river discharge"', Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 56, no. 3, pp. 521-524.
  • Andrews, F, Croke, B & Jakeman, A 2011, 'An open software environment for hydrological model assessment and development', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 26, no. 10, pp. 1171-1185.
  • Croke, B, Islam, A, Ghosh, J et al 2011, 'Evaluation of approaches for estimation of rainfall and the Unit Hydrograph', Hydrology Research: an international journal, vol. 42, no. 5, pp. 372-385.
  • Kim, H, Croke, B, Jakeman, A et al. 2011, 'An assessment of modelling capacity to identify the impacts of climate variability on catchment hydrology', Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, vol. 81, no. 7, pp. 1419-1429.
  • Croke, B 2010, 'Exploring changes in catchment response characteristics: Application of a generic filter for estimating the effective rainfall and unit hydrograph from an observed streamflow timeseries', British Hydrological Society International Conference 2010, ed. Celia Kirby, British Hydrological Society, UK, pp. 1-6.
  • Breuer, L, Huisman, J, Willems, P et al 2009, 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) I: Model intercomparison with current land use', Advances in Water Resources, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 129-146.
  • Bormann, H, Breuer, L, Graff, T et al 2009, 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) IV: Model sensitivity to data aggregation and spatial (re-)distribution', Advances in Water Resources, vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 171-192.
  • Huisman, J, Breuer, L, Bormann, H et al 2009, 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis', Advances in Water Resources, vol. 32, pp. 159-170.
  • Ivkovic, K, Letcher, R & Croke, B 2009, 'Use of a simple surface-groundwater interaction model to inform water management', Australian Journal of Earth Sciences, vol. 56, no. 1, pp. 71-80.
  • Viney, N, Bormann, H, Breuer, L et al 2009, 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions', Advances in Water Resources, vol. 32, pp. 147-158.
  • Herron, N & Croke, B 2009, 'Including the influence of groundwater exchanges in a lumped rainfall-runoff model', Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, vol. 79, pp. 2689-2700.
  • Powell, S, Letcher, R & Croke, B 2008, 'Modelling floodplain inundation for environmental flows: Gwydir wetlands, Australia', Ecological Modelling, vol. 211, pp. 350-362.
  • Littlewood, I & Croke, B 2008, 'Data time-step dependency of conceptual rainfall-streamflow model parameters: an empirical study with implications for regionalisation', Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 53, no. 4, pp. 685-695.
  • Croke, B 2007, 'The Role of Uncertainty in Design of Objective Functions', International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2007), ed. Les Oxley & Don Kulasiri, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc., New Zealand, pp. 2541-2547.
  • Ferguson, C, Croke, B, Beatson, P et al 2007, 'Development of a process-based model to predict pathogen budgets for the Sydney drinking water catchment', Journal of Water and Health, vol. 05, no. 2, pp. 187-208.
  • Croke, B, Ticehurst, J, Letcher, R et al 2007, 'Integrated assessment of water resources: Australian experiences', Water Resources Management, vol. 21, pp. 351-373.
  • Letcher, R, Croke, B, Jakeman, A et al 2006, 'An integrated modelling toolbox for water resources assessment and management in highland catchments: Model description', Agricultural Systems, vol. 89, no. 1, pp. 106-131.
  • Croke, B 2006, 'A technique for deriving an average event unit hydrograph from streamflow-only data for ephemeral quick-flow-dominant catchments', Advances in Water Resources, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 493-502.
  • Croke, B, Letcher, R & Jakeman, A 2006, 'Development of a distributed flow model for underpinning assessment of water allocation options in the Namoi River Basin, Australia', Journal of Hydrology, vol. 319, no. 1-4, pp. 51-71.
  • Croke, B, Andrews, F, Jakeman, A et al. 2006, 'IHACRES Classic Plus: A redesign of the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 21, pp. 426-427.
  • Croke, B, Merritt, W & Jakeman, A 2004, 'A dynamic model for predicting hydrologic response to land cover Changes in gauged and ungauged catchments', Journal of Hydrology, vol. 291, pp. 115-131.
  • Croke, B & Jakeman, A 2004, 'A catchment moisture deficit module for the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model', Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 19, pp. 1-5.
  • Croke, B & Norton, J 2004, 'Regionalisation of Rainfall-Runoff models', Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society 2004, ed. Pahl, C., Schmidt, S., Rizzoli, A., and Jakeman A., International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, Manno Switzerland, pp. 3.1201-1207.
  • Letcher, R, Jakeman, A & Croke, B 2004, 'Model development for integrated assessment of water allocation options', Water Resources Research, vol. 40, pp. W05502.
  • Littlewood, I, Croke, B, Jakeman, A et al 2003, 'The role of top-down modelling for Prediction in Ungauged Basins', Hydrological Processes, vol. 17, pp. 1673-1679.
  • Croke, B & Jakeman, A 2001, 'Predictions in catchment hydrology: an Australian perspective', Marine and Freshwater Research, vol. 52, pp. 65-79.

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