Consistent estimation in subcritical birth-and-death processes
The Mathematical Data Science Centre seminar series.
Date & time
Date/time
1 Dec 2025 1:00pm - 1 Dec 2025 2:00pm
Speaker
Speakers
Sophie Hautphenne (University of Melbourne)
Event series
Event series
Contact
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Description
Abstract: Birth-and-death processes are the simplest continuous-time branching processes and are widely used in applications. Subcritical birth-and-death processes model declining populations that would naturally die out without conservation efforts. When we apply these processes to model endangered populations, the data should be interpreted as generated by the process conditioned on survival, and consistent estimators are desirable.
In this talk, we propose the first consistent estimators for parameters of subcritical birth-and-death processes, based on continuous observation of a single non-extinct trajectory of the process. The idea behind their construction stems from a spine decomposition of subcritical branching processes conditioned to survive in the distant future.
Location
Seminar Room 1.33, Hanna Neumann Building 145
Science Road, Acton ACT 2601
-35.275494045077, 149.11932542604